Austin Lieberman

Cloud & AI Value

High-conviction opportunities are emerging in legacy tech leaders as valuation multiples disconnect from historical norms and AI-driven growth potential.

• Amazon (AMZN): High-conviction play with a $605.99 price target by 2028, representing a potential 140% return as it reverts to historical multiples.
• Adobe (ADBE): Described as stupid cheap, trading at an 11x P/E compared to its 39x historical average despite a 25% growth rate.
• Intel (INTC): Positioned as a long-term turnaround play with expectations to become the primary hype stock of 2026.

Cybersecurity Dynamics

Incumbent security vendors are successfully capturing AI market share, while high-cost observability platforms face budget scrutiny and potential churn.

• CrowdStrike (CRWD) & Zscaler (ZS): Identified as the primary winners in the AI security market, gaining significant usage share over frontier model providers.
• Datadog (DDOG): Bearish outlook as experts report decreasing spend or replacement due to high costs despite the stock trading near $142.
• Palo Alto Networks (PANW): Maintaining strong usage share alongside Microsoft as enterprises consolidate security stacks.

Speculative M&A & Valuations

Market skepticism remains high regarding ambitious acquisition proposals and premium valuations for companies facing growth or margin pressure.

• Tesla (TSLA): Bearish sentiment on valuation; estimated fair value of $277.49 suggests a potential 28% downside from current levels.
• GameStop (GME): Skepticism surrounds a rumored $56B bid for eBay (EBAY), with analysts questioning the credibility of the deal structure.
• HP Inc. (HPQ): Speculated as a potential acquisition target for NVIDIA (NVDA) to reshape the server and computing landscape.